‘Military voters' could threaten Bush's bid for re-election By RITA CHANG, Special to this newspaper
Monday, November 10, 2003 2:40 PM PST
WASHINGTON (MNS) — The increasing disenchantment among military personnel and veterans with the Bush administration's handling of the American occupation in Iraq may create a liability for President Bush in his 2004 re-election bid, said journalists at a briefing Wednesday.
Defining "military voters" as U.S. military personnel, veterans, and voters with friends and families in the U.S. military, Ben Wallace-Wells, editor of the Washington Monthly, told the audience this predominantly Republican group could represent a new breed of swing voters in the next presidential election.
Voters in "Bush country," like Fayetteville, Beaufort and Jacksonville, and other small, conservative coastal towns of North Carolina, are showing signs of discontent with the administration's policies on Iraq, said Wallace-Wells, who recently spent time in the South taking the pulse of military voters.
"Six months ago, you simply didn't hear anything against Bush in Jacksonville but these attitudes have begun to change," Wallace-Wells said. "The local newspaper's editorial board, which has been vocally pro-Bush throughout his administration, ran an editorial at the beginning of October criticizing the administration's policies on Iraq, suggesting that the campaign could end in a Vietnam-like quagmire."
Wallace-Wells said reservists who returned home expressed their disillusionment on local radio talk shows, saying they wouldn't be re-enlisting and complaining their return dates repeatedly had been delayed. Wallace-Wells said Jacksonville's mayor told him "the longer the war goes on, the more of that subtle shift you're going to see."
Still, most residents in these small towns say they continue to support Bush, although "their faith in him and the GOP powers in Washington have been rattled," Wallace-Wells said.
Given that loyalty among the military voters is showing signs of tapering, Wallace-Wells said Bush may not win this group handily come 2004. Importantly, if their votes go to Democrats, Bush could be in for a defeat. Wallace-Wells pointed out it would have taken less than
two-100ths of 1 percent in the military vote for the Democrats to prevail in Florida in 2000. And, with a shift of less than 5 percent in the veterans' vote alone, Democrats would have secured the electoral votes in Arkansas, Nevada and New Hampshire.
But according to Brian Adams, a political science professor at San Diego State University, Florida was such a swing state that even the most minor fluctuation would have given either party a decisive advantage. Still, Adams agreed if the situation in Iraq does not improve, Bush's foreign policy could haunt him on Election Day.
"If the situation gets better in Iraq, they'll be forgiven," Adams said. "If things get worse because of civilian oversight (in the Pentagon), the administration's policy could backfire. The longer the war goes on, these issues become more problematic. But it's an open question. There's a lot that can happen between now and November."
Wallace-Wells said among the military voters, the veterans' vote will count for the most because as they not only represent significant Republican voting blocks, but far larger voting blocks than active troops.
Some Imperial County veterans, whose number total more than 6,500, agreed that America's policy on Iraq could spell trouble for the president in 2004.
"I think a lot of people cross-vote," said George Speer, a Korean War veteran. "Anybody would jump over to get someone who could do a better job."
Carl Vindiola, a Vietnam vet, also downplayed the relevance of political affiliation.
"I don't think political parties have anything to do with
it," he said. "It has to do with the issues and who will run against Bush."
Others say voting Republican is a matter of course. One Navy officer based in the Naval Air Facility El Centro said the administration would have to botch the Iraqi mission seriously before he would consider voting
against the GOP.
"It would have to be dramatic, where all the troops got run over by the Iraqis, resulting in a shift in power," said the officer, who declined to be named.
Dismissing that scenario as unlikely, the officer said he is committed to the GOP.
"I would still vote Republican because I support the current office and their philosophy. Going to war is not an easy thing, but it's not big enough of an issue to shift the vote."
For Donald Vaughn, a veteran who runs the Imperial County Veterans Service Office, loyalty to the Republican Party remains his guidepost on how to vote, adding he "can see how the Democrats are going to get a hold on this issue."
Wallace-Wells said the frustration among the military voters began after Bush declared an end to formal combat in Iraq. The misguided post-war planning by the administration has driven down morale among the military personnel in Iraq, Wallace-Wells said.
One major complaint among both soldiers and officers is the war is being fought with too few troops, although the administration announced a plan Thursday to rotate more than 100,000 fresh troops into the area in 2004.
The declining morale also stems from the day-to-day grind of being in the middle of chaos, being the targets of ambush
and guerrilla warfare, and being promised a certain return date only to be told that their service has been extended.
Brawley resident Barbara Shelly, whose husband served in two wars, echoed the negative sentiments. Shelly said although she votes Republican, she disapproves of Bush's stance on Iraq.
"As a mother and grandmother, I hate seeing our boys over there as much as anybody," she said.
The Iraqi situation will "make me think very hard on voting day."
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